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Scenarios for the Avicenna model contain three primary constructs: locations, individuals and mobility. These constructs form the social network graph of the population for a given area and define the vectors by which disease may progress. The quality of a given model prediction is directly tied to the fidelity and quality of the underlying data used to construct a scenario. In its most basic form, a scenario could be defined that incorporates the entirety of a population within a single location (country) with random interactions. In this case, the model would produce results similar to a traditional mathematical model. Once we begin to include real-world locations, individual demographics, realistic mobility (or lack thereof) and consider human behavior, the predictions become much more particular to the unique characteristics of a given time and place.


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